The stock market forecasts for 2016 are rolling in.
Wall Street steadily lowered its expectations for the stock market as 2015 unfolded.
On Friday, the S&P 500 traded near 2,090, and the median year-end target on the index was 2,150 according to Bloomberg data. Last December, it was 2,213.
Based on the forecasts we’ve received so far, even the most bullish strategists expect that 2016 will be a modest year for the market.
Uncertainty about how markets respond to the first interest rate hike in nine years, commodity price weakness, and slow global growth are some of the things strategists have identified as potential headwinds for stocks and earnings.
We’ve rounded up the calls from the top firms on Wall Street that we have so far.
We also included their original 2015 price targets, so you can see where the strategists stood a year ago compared to where the market is now. Many of these were revised as the year unfolded.
Goldman Sachs
2016 year-end target: 2,100
2016 EPS forecast: $120
2015 year-end target: 2,100
Comment: “We forecast the S&P 500 index will tread water for a second consecutive year in 2016,” wrote David Kostin. “Our year-end 2016 target of 2100 represents a 1% price gain from the current index level (2089), which itself is just 1% above the year-end 2014 level of 2059.”
Source: Goldman Sachs
Bank of America Merrill Lynch
2016 year-end target: 2,200
2016 EPS forecast: $120
2015 year-end target: 2,200
Comment: “We expect modest gains for US large cap stocks in 2016: the likelihood of a recession in the next 12 months is low in our view, but valuations have normalized from previously low levels and narrowing returns are to be expected,” wrote Savita Subramanian.
Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch
UBS
2016 year-end target: 2,275
2016 EPS forecast: $126
2015 year-end target: 2,225
Comment: “Barring an unforeseen external shock or a recession, if earnings continue to improve, 2016 should be a positive year for US equities,” Julian Emanuel wrote. “Regardless, we continue to expect further volatility – which in essence means higher risk, both upside and downside.”
Source: UBS
See the rest of the story at Business Insider
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